mercredi 5 décembre 2012

Foutu sperme ou la débandade de la grandeur.

En 16 années de 1989 à 2005 des chercheurs français ont noté une diminution nette de 34,6% du nombre de spermatozoïdes qui ont chuté de 76,3 millions à 49,9 millions par cm3. Ceci implique une chute exponentielle moyenne de -Ln(1-34,60%)/16 ans = 2,65% par an. Si cette dégénérescence se maintient à ce taux de 2,65% de dépérissement par an sans s'aggraver, le seuil critique de fertilité situé autour de 40 millions de spermatozoïdes par cm3  sera atteint vers 2013. (Ln(4,99E7/4,00E7)/Ln(1+0,0265) ≈ 8 ans.) L'infertilité, effective autour de 20 millions de spermatozoïdes par cm3, est quant à elle prévisible vers 2040. (Ln(4,99E7/2,00E7)/Ln(1+0,0265) ≈ 35 ans.) Les hommes ont en 2012 déjà probablement égaré 1-(EXP((2012-1989)*-2,65%)) ≈ 45,7% du potentiel fertile qu'ils avaient en 1989.  On peut en outre noter que le taux de spermatozoïdes  par cm3 en France en 2005 (49,9 millions) était inférieur au taux relevé en Israel en 2008 (67 millions).   Sans surprise la France entre de plein droit dans la catégorie des superpuissances en voie de disparition génétique.
 

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5 commentaires:

Lionel a dit…

Il aurait été intéressant d'avoir les résultats d'investigations plus pointues sur les modes de vie, les expositions ( proximité de... centrales ? ), situations socio-professionnelle et modes alimentaires.
Peut-on comparer des populations de grandes agglomérations et celles des campagnes isolées des pollutions et du stress - Oui ! ça existe encore, bientôt les tour-operators vont s'en emparer - ???
Les conclusions me sont acquises, quoique... quoique.
Un peu comme l'auto-régulation démontrée chez les rats, les porcs ?
Y penser me met soudain très mal-à-l'aise...

La terra non ha uscite di emergenza. a dit…

Malaise partagé.

Lionel a dit…

Je retrouve un lien de Nov 2011 portant sur la présence d'I, Cs et Pu en Lituanie après l'accident de Fukushima :
http://www.happysmile.se/dokument/science_plutonium_litauen.pdf
Pru dans "Journal of Environmental Radioactivity" en Janvier 2012.

La terra non ha uscite di emergenza. a dit…

Et oui le Pu de Fukushima est arrivé à .... Tchernobyl ! Merci de ce rappel !

La terra non ha uscite di emergenza. a dit…

http://aipri.blogspot.it/2012/01/les-poussieres-de-fukushima.html